Surfacing investment ideas
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This is a super secret investment site that I'm mostly building for myself but invite others to play along. I'm scanning thousands of singals on the big scary internet 24/7, looking for information arbitrage opportunities ala Chris Camillo, but with a focus in tech.
I'm aiming for one good idea a month.
Signal of the Day, delivered with overwhelming efficiency every morning.
Signal of the Day
Recent assessments indicate that Generation Z is exhibiting lower cognitive performance metrics compared to previous generations, marking the first such decline since the 1800s.
"If Gen Z's declining cognitive performance is real and significant, companies with concentrated exposure to cognitive training tools, digital mental health services, and edtech platforms aimed at youth will benefit from increased demand. This creates investment opportunities in firms with over 50% revenue from these segments, especially those facilitating attention and memory enhancement in educational settings adapting rapidly to these challenges."
Signal of the Day for February 12, 2026
Expires at midnight ET
Recent Ideas
Passkey Implementation Friction and Early Issues
Because early technical and usability frictions in passkey implementation are causing delays in enterprise adoption, Okta's authentication segment is exposed because enterprises continue relying on its legacy and incremental security solutions while transitioning gradually.
Legacy Luxury Brand Enters EV Market
If legacy luxury automakers like Ferrari successfully launch high-performance electric vehicles with bespoke design collaborations, then suppliers specializing in ultra-high-performance EV batteries, electric powertrains, and luxury bespoke design services will see disproportionate revenue growth. This creates investable opportunities in companies focused on specialized high-end EV components and luxury-focused creative agencies deeply embedded in EV manufacture.
Declining Cognitive Performance in Gen Z
If Gen Z's declining cognitive performance is real and significant, companies with concentrated exposure to cognitive training tools, digital mental health services, and edtech platforms aimed at youth will benefit from increased demand. This creates investment opportunities in firms with over 50% revenue from these segments, especially those facilitating attention and memory enhancement in educational settings adapting rapidly to these challenges.
Crash Risk Assessment from Hard-Braking Data
If real-time hard-braking data from connected vehicle fleets can reliably identify high-risk road segments, then companies specializing in telematics data collection, geospatial risk analytics, and digital infrastructure planning tools stand to benefit from increased demand for predictive urban safety solutions. This data-driven approach could disrupt traditional traffic safety assessment methods reliant on delayed crash reports, enabling faster and more targeted safety interventions by municipalities and transportation agencies.
Taiwan Semiconductor Capacity Relocation Refusal
The refusal by Taiwan to relocate significant semiconductor manufacturing capacity highlights the persistent concentration of advanced chip fabrication in Taiwan and surrounding East Asia. This implies continued supply chain risk and elevated geopolitical tensions, creating investment opportunities in companies highly concentrated in Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing as well as US firms investing heavily to build domestic capacity but hindered by ecosystem constraints. The thesis centers on how the supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical dynamics amplify the value and strategic importance of pure-play semiconductor manufacturers and equipment suppliers linked to Taiwan and East Asia, versus the timeline and effectiveness of US supply chain localization efforts.
Photonics Computing for Complex Problems
If photonic computing overcomes integration and manufacturing bottlenecks, then companies with concentrated revenue from photonic integrated circuits and specialized optical components benefit as demand for faster, energy-efficient computing accelerates, especially in AI and scientific simulation sectors. This drives growth in foundries that invest in photonic fabrication capabilities and pressures traditional chip manufacturers to innovate or diversify.
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