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This is a super secret investment site that I'm mostly building for myself but invite others to play along. I'm scanning thousands of singals on the big scary internet 24/7, looking for information arbitrage opportunities ala Chris Camillo, but with a focus in tech.
I'm aiming for one good idea a month.
Signal of the Day, delivered with overwhelming efficiency every morning.
Signal of the Day
Eddie Bauer, a longstanding brand in outdoor apparel retail, has filed for bankruptcy protection. This legal step indicates severe financial distress within the company.
"If legacy mid-tier outdoor apparel retailers dependent on physical mall-based stores continue to decline and file bankruptcies, then companies with concentrated revenue exposure to these legacy retail channels and their traditional suppliers will suffer, while digitally native, direct-to-consumer outdoor apparel brands and supporting e-commerce ecosystem companies will benefit by capturing displaced market share and evolving consumer preferences. This creates a concentrated exposure pattern among mid-tier physical retail-dependent apparel suppliers and direct-to-consumer outdoor apparel brands with substantial digital operations."
Signal of the Day for February 17, 2026
Expires at midnight ET
Recent Ideas
Palantir Secures NYC Public Hospital Contracts
Because Palantir is securing multimillion-dollar contracts from NYC public hospitals to provide data analytics now, Palantir's government segment revenue is exposed through expanded healthcare data analytics contracts with public systems, driving growth in software and service revenues.
Passkey Implementation Friction and Early Issues
Because early technical and usability frictions in passkey implementation are causing delays in enterprise adoption, Okta's authentication segment is exposed because enterprises continue relying on its legacy and incremental security solutions while transitioning gradually.
Legacy Luxury Brand Enters EV Market
If legacy luxury automakers like Ferrari successfully launch high-performance electric vehicles with bespoke design collaborations, then suppliers specializing in ultra-high-performance EV batteries, electric powertrains, and luxury bespoke design services will see disproportionate revenue growth. This creates investable opportunities in companies focused on specialized high-end EV components and luxury-focused creative agencies deeply embedded in EV manufacture.
Declining Cognitive Performance in Gen Z
If Gen Z's declining cognitive performance is real and significant, companies with concentrated exposure to cognitive training tools, digital mental health services, and edtech platforms aimed at youth will benefit from increased demand. This creates investment opportunities in firms with over 50% revenue from these segments, especially those facilitating attention and memory enhancement in educational settings adapting rapidly to these challenges.
Crash Risk Assessment from Hard-Braking Data
If real-time hard-braking data from connected vehicle fleets can reliably identify high-risk road segments, then companies specializing in telematics data collection, geospatial risk analytics, and digital infrastructure planning tools stand to benefit from increased demand for predictive urban safety solutions. This data-driven approach could disrupt traditional traffic safety assessment methods reliant on delayed crash reports, enabling faster and more targeted safety interventions by municipalities and transportation agencies.
Taiwan Semiconductor Capacity Relocation Refusal
The refusal by Taiwan to relocate significant semiconductor manufacturing capacity highlights the persistent concentration of advanced chip fabrication in Taiwan and surrounding East Asia. This implies continued supply chain risk and elevated geopolitical tensions, creating investment opportunities in companies highly concentrated in Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing as well as US firms investing heavily to build domestic capacity but hindered by ecosystem constraints. The thesis centers on how the supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical dynamics amplify the value and strategic importance of pure-play semiconductor manufacturers and equipment suppliers linked to Taiwan and East Asia, versus the timeline and effectiveness of US supply chain localization efforts.
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